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Understanding Expected Relative Progress

Expected Relative progress is denoted by the dotted line in the center of the relative progress indicator bar. Conceptually, relative progress is simply the difference between students' entering achievement and exiting achievement. If students maintain their entering achievement over time, then the relative progress measure is zero (or close to zero). Zero represents expected relative progress. Positive relative progress measures are evidence that students made more than expected relative progress, and negative relative progress measures are evidence that students made less than expected relative progress.

Expected Relative progress signifies the minimum amount of academic relative progress that educators should expect a group of students to make as they move from one grade to the next in a specified subject area. In general, this signifies appropriate, expected academic relative progress. Simply put, the expectation is that regardless of their entering achievement, students served by each district, school, or teacher should at least make enough relative progress to maintain their achievement relative to other students. This is a reasonable target for educators who serve all types of students.

  • In the gain model, expected relative progress means that students maintained the same position with respect to the in the state student achievement that year.

  • In the predictive model, expected relative progress means that students made the same amount of growth as students with the average district or school in the state for that same year, subject, and grade.

Both models define expected relative progress based on the empirical student testing data; in other words, they do not assume a particular amount of relative progress or assign expected relative progress in advance of the assessment being taken by students. Both models use an intra-year approach to measuring relative progress and defining expected relative progress. This means that expected relative progress is always relative to how students' achievement has changed in the most recent year of testing rather than a fixed year in the past.

Assessments analyzed with the Predictive model are reported in scale scores. During the 2022-23 school year, ISAT assessments for English Language Arts and Math were administered in grade 11 instead of in grade 10 as in the past. In addition, some students that took these assessments in the 2021-22 school year while in grade 10 were not required to take the assessments while in grade 11 during the 2022-23 school year. For reporting and accountability purposes, the scores for this group of students were used as grade 11 scores for the 2022-23 school year alongside the grade 11 scores of students who were required to take the assessments. As a result, a different approach was needed for the 2022-23 analysis for the grade 11 assessments. For more information, refer to the Statistical Models and Business Rules document.
When a relative progress index falls exactly on the boundary between two colors, the higher relative progress indicator is assigned.